Thu, 28 August 2014
This Week's ShowWe're back to talk the finalized Kevin Love trade, and what it means for Philadelphia? Also, Kevin Love's exit from Minnesota and the parting words from Glen Taylor. Finally, we return to an old well: defense Hosts
This Week's PollShow NotesThe Kevin Love Trade: the 76ers?
The 76ers dumped Thaddeus Young's contract. This means they now have no bad contracts. In fact, the entire 76ers roster could buy you one Kobe. We think the 76ers are better off than the Lakers. We should stress the 76ers aren't "tanking" by losing. They're tanking by not overpaying for wins. One note, when it comes to paying for wins, teams that have a short window (see the Heat last year, and the Thunder), you pay to win! Tangent: Best Chucker Bench Player?
This topic came up during the show. Arturo couldn't let it lie, so here are some great names of players off the bench that still managed to waste tons of possessions when they were in:
Tangent: Glen Taylor's Dan Gilbert ImpressionThe Timberwolves' owner had less than kind words for Kevin Love on the way out. The NBA is just another example of how rich people do not have the same reality as others. The Wolves put up some historically bad teams around Kevin Love. An easy explanation for Kevin Love's haters
Just remember the Joe Smith illegal contract by the Minnesota Timberwolves whenever you think the team is well run. What makes this situation amazing is Patrick wrote about it years ago! Kevin Love has a good role model. Kevin Garnett showed what happens to those that stay in Minnesota. I parrot Arturo's "logic" and say I think Kyrie Irving can become better if he plays less of a point guard and more of a shooting guard. We'll have to see. Tangent: Glen Taylor's Dan Gilbert ImpressionArturo did some help on Basketball Breakdown about Defense. We have a long discussion about defense, especially as it's a common lob at Kevin Love. On defense, like much of basketball, being tall is a huge edge. I mentioned it could be a reason Kobe had animosity to Shaq. We get into the notion of "diminishing responsibilities" on defense. Players like James Harden may not excel at D, but that really isn't their job! Tune in, we have a long conversation on this. ShoutoutsDanny Leroux(@DannyLeroux), who keeps letting Arturo onto the RealGM Podcast Coach Nick(@bballbreakdown), who worked with Arturo on Defense. Arturo, for the amazing 76ers trade above. Chris Baxter(@cbax) from the great That Thing You Like podcast. Not only does he now have an amazing webcomic (check it out at cbax.net) but also for starting the pizza vs. taco debate with Brian Shirlaw(@Brian_RS). Myself, for this *hilarious* tweet. I know, absuse of power!
Hubie Brown, who I forget as we wind down. He had amazing coach knowledge! |
Thu, 21 August 2014
HostsAndres Alvarez(@nerdnumbers) Produced by Brian Foster(@boxscorebrian) This week's pollShow NotesBrian was referencing this hit by Vlad Guerrero. Baseball's a silly sport. Historical NumbersPatrick's amazing work means we have NBA Wins Produced numbers back to the 1970s!. That's as good as it's going to get too sadly. When you see other advanced stats go earlier, the "trick" they use is to make up guesses for player stats. Oh yeah, Patrick also added a way to compare players' career stats. Check it out! We have a lot to say about the best 50 NBA seasons. How about that Rodney McCray? I manage to reference my 92 Dream Team poster. Looking at his numbers, I'll take back my dig at Chris Mullin. That said, Christian Laettner had no business on that team. Now, that aside, Dennis Rodman was the best player in the NBA in 1992. Robert Horry Hall of FameDoes he belong in the Hall of Fame? We've been arguing about this all week. We get on a tangent about why the Hall of Fame's "lax standards" and the BCS are good things in terms of entertainment for fans. Compelling playoffs are good, as we've written about before. On Robert Horry, the number of players the Hall lets in makes the standards lax enough to get him in. That said, many other players need to go first, Mutombo? How about Brent Barry? Oh yeah, Horace Grant gets snubbed from his contributions to Michael Jordan's legacy. Toronto Raptors and DrakeDrake trying to lure Devin Durant to the Toronto Raptors resulted in a $25,000 fine. What's worth noting is this is not normal in most fields. In areas like tech, the idea of people being allowed to job search is the norm. Companies are expected to try and woo talent. In pro-sports we have people worrying about collusion when friends talk about working together. An example of actual tampering was the Joe Smith saga in Minnesota. Of course, that was poorly executed even before it was punished. Boxscore Geeks Drinking GameAnyone with graphic aptitude that wants to make a poster for this? We're starting to get a few rules together (add yours in the comments below)
Shout OutsBrent Barry(@Barryathree) for his love of our Horry piece and bringing up True Shooting numbers on Twitter.
John Floyd(@baddynoshoes) and Andrew Sutton do amazing work in the comments. Thank you! Rodney McCray gets an official shout out for stumping us by his great play. Jonathan Weiler(@jonweiler) He keeps making the list! Again, checkout the ESPN Watch. The people, protestors, and media of Ferguson earn a shout out. We are absolutely against the travesties of the Ferguson police. Our support goes out to those that whose rights have been oppressed and those that have kept reporting and protesting. MusicIntro Music - Test Drive by Zapac. Outro Music - Simply the Best by Tina Turner |
Thu, 14 August 2014
HostsPatrick Minton(nbageek) Produced by Brian Foster(boxscorebrian) This week's pollShow NotesO'Bannon RulingThe Ed O'Bannon trial recently came out in favor of "student athletes" Jonathan Weiler wrote a great piece about Bob Bowlski(the Big 12 -- a non-profit organization -- commissioner) and his ludicrous statements about not paying athletes. College athletics don't make money, or so they say. Of course, it's easy to not make money when you spend it all on athletic coaches! Following up Patrick's talk on this, our old post on this was using the same graphic used at Deadspin. By the way, the idea that not paying athletes helps parity in college sports is just a myth. As we've talked with Paul Shirley about before, the rules about how athletes can make money in college (e.g. side jobs using their image) are absurd. Dave Berri has discussed that paying students to work in college is nothing shocking. He does it. Athletes are apparently different. Comment PolicyAs we mentioned in the thread for last week's show, we're going to be a bit different in the comments. While we do enjoy taking the time out to clarify questions/complaints about our metrics, methodologies, etc., some have abused this. Repeating the same thing over and over is just not going to fly. Additionally, we've decided to start removing incorrect comments. We feel this is unfair to our readers, who may not realize a statement is incorrect. While we'd love to spend the time to correct/edit every comment, we don't have the time (see below for exciting reasons why). There are lots of people happy to tinker in this space. And that's great. But if your math is off, it will not find a place in our comments. One last thing that Patrick didn't mention in depth is the length of comments. If you have a super long comment, I suggest you write your own blog post (even a medium as simple as Facebook supports this) and provide a link. Again, it's rough to edit stuff and while I enjoy the enthusiasm of long comments, they do monopolize the comment space, so they too may start getting deleted. We've seen pushback before in regards to deleting/editing comments. What I will say is that this is our blog. We pay money and have put considerable work to make it. Commenting here is a priveledge, not a right. And the majority of you are great commenters with good insight. We've just seen a small rise in some issues we'd like to keep out of the comments. We hope it makes the comments a more enjoyable experience! Player Options and Net Present ValueGreg Monroe and Eric Bledsoe may be "leaving money on the table" by only accepting their qualifying offer in order to become free agents next season. Of course, Monroe may never have gotten a good offer. Patrick brings up the notion of Net Present Value. Namely, while a two contracts may be the same in total value if you accept less money now, in the long run you may be making less. After all, if Eric Bledsoe makes $100 million over five years, but in one case gets $15 million in year one and in another only gets $5 million, that's $10 million he can't invest earlier. And compound interest is amazing! Of course, there's also risk that Bledsoe's value may drop by the time he's eligible for a raise. Contract negotiations in general are going to be interesting until the next TV deal comes through. Patrick has some interesting thoughts about why certain players can age more gracefully (like Steve Nash). Tune in to hear more. Coming Soon to a Boxscore Geeks Near You!Patrick teases some new features including:
Tell Patrick how excited you are in the comments! Shout OutsJonathan Weiler(@jonweiler) for his amazing pieces on the O'Bannon case recently. Seriously, checkout the ESPN Watch. Josh Weil(@joshweil) has a similar name to Jonathan Weiler. And he's also an amazing NBA mind! Arturo Galletti(@arturogalletti) couldn't make the show. But he has been working tirelessly with Patrick to get the upgrades we promised! MusicIntro Music - Test Drive by Zapac. Outro Music - Take on Me (A-Ha), cover by Anni B Sweet. |
Thu, 7 August 2014
Video ShowHostsAndres Alvarez(@nerdnumbers) Produced by Brian Foster(@boxscorebrian) This week's pollShow NotesThe Olympics/Talent EvaluationPatrick's piece on Mason Plumlee vs. DeMarcus Cousins and Zach Lowe's piece on evaluating bigs lead to a discussion about valuable skills and player evaluation. Evaluating things like Chris Bosh's midrange game as "good" is iffy. Yes, he's above average at it, but it's not neccesarily better than average threes or layups. My general problem with modern advanced stats is we can zoom in on players, but do not understand the magnitude of their skill/deficiency. Forty three players shot over four threes a game with > 35% last season! The Pacers and 538Paul George is a rare talent in that he's a good scorer but doesn't quite get the respect I'd expect. Case in point, this 538 post on it! Nate Silver's recent piece on Paul George and injuries is interesting. That said, the stats and methods Nate uses don't seem cohesive or vetted. In short, I expect more. Richard Feynman sums up a lot of the issues in bad studies. TankingPatrick asks if Philadelphia is the first team to "tank correctly" in the modern draft. Devin Dignam on how tanking used to work in the NBA. I love the logic that the Wizards have been tanking for three decades, and the solution is to tank some more! The reason the Wizards are "bad at tanking" is not being able to give up on top draft picks when they don't turn into stars. Becky Hammon and Good ManagementI'm a little skeptical about how the mainstream media will scrutinize Becky Hammon. I've written about this before. It's pessmimist and depressing but it's also possible this is tokenism, not a start of a change. Kevin Draper has written about how people "in charge" in the NBA may have less control than we think. Dan Pink has a great TED talk on what motivates people. Tangent - Drinking GameWe've got a few common things happen in the show regularly. Feel free to tweet us more suggestions but here are a few suggestions for a Boxscore Geeks drinking game:
Shout OutsAaron Montgomery for this great tweet:
Taye Diggs(@tayediggs) for making my day by following me on Twitter.
MusicIntro Music - Test Drive by Zapac. Outro Music - Math by Supernova. |
Thu, 31 July 2014
Video ShowHosts
Weekly PollShow NotesBest "Robins" in the NBA?Arturo wrote a piece on the thirty best "Robins" in NBA history. Have we mentioned Dennis Rodman is underrated? Also, he's a Batman more than a Robin. Hakeem is an all-time center, but his amazing playoffs performance against David Robinson and Shaquille O'Neal may give him the irrational boost to greatest ever. Correction: Rodman only won two Defensive Player of the Year awards. I think being great at defense should be a shoe-in for Hall of Fame first ballot voting. However, as I've discussed about Dikembe Mutombo, I don't think it is. Also, Ben Wallace is likely to be snubbed, and as a reminder, he was the star of the "starless Pistons" that won it all. And that's using conventional methods too! I argue that the term Robin to describe great second players is silly. For some good "Robins": Arturo thinks Mo Cheeks is mad underrated. Also, Mario and Nash are a great duo that doesn't get enough love. Reminder, Golden State gifted the Celtics three rings in the 80s. Seriously. You probably need a star to win. The Sonics in 79 are the only team to really buck this trend. On the Run and Gun Suns, it's worth noting they could have had Luol Deng, when he was still amazing, instead of Joe Johnson. Ouch. The Lakers and the Western LandscapeThe Lakers' GM Mitch Kupchack says the Lakers could make the playoffs next season. Arturo kindly reminds us the Lakers don't play in the East. And even that would be a stretch. Nick Young said he'd be happy to be Kobe's Robin. I say Nick Young is the only person to use that term correctly! Reminder, Nick Young is terrible! We talk bad Robins -- including Jason Todd. I argue the Red Hood storyline makes him a good character. Arturo counters the retcon there was terrible. No disagreement. However, check out Under the Redhood, it's a great DC animated film. Arturo runs down his vision for the 2014-2015 Western Conference. Tune in! The Thunder lost Thabo Sefolosha. Of course, if they'd finally just stop giving Perkins so many minutes, they'll be fine with Nick Collison and Steve Adams. For the Rockets, we think Ariza is an upgrade. Of course, as Shawn Furyan points out - the worst stretch of Ariza's career was in Houston. The Mavericks seem to have stolen Phoenix's medical staff. Reminder, the Trail Blazers won 54 games but had a crazy strong stretch where Wes Matthews and Damian Lillard were being historically good from three. Arturo gives hope to Denver fans. When it comes to the Lakers and the Kings, the Kings win out because they have DeMarcus Cousins, and Jordan Hill isn't going to get playing time. We think the Lakers have a legitimate shot of 24 missed shots in a quarter happening at some point this season. We leave the East for later. A point though, the Cavaliers need to do a little more to be better than they were last time LeBron took them to a finals. Arturo makes a bad joke, which we compare to Josh Smith's amazing ability to keep shooting airballs. Position AdjustmentWe talk a little more about position adjustment following Patrick's recent piece on "small ball". The position adjustment and WaR crowd have two basic points that seem contrary to me:
These two ideas are very much at odds. No economist would tell you microeconomics is a trivial and simple field. At the same time, few will act as if positions in the NBA are really that complex. Some more fun notes - most players in the NBA are overpaid! This is simply because the salary cap restricts stars, and rookies are wildly underpaid. Arturo points out that this is good politics, as if most players are overpaid, they're less likely to be upset. Shout OutsDaniel Leroux (@DannyLeroux) of RealGM was the inspiration behind the Robins piece. Also, Ian Levy(@HickoryHigh) at Nylon Calculus gets some love here. Coach Nick (@bballbreakdown) gets a shout out for teaching a clinic on the Triangle Offense in New York. Krishna Narsu(@knarsu3) gets a shout out for some amazing charts on how Kobe and LeBron act as the shot clock winds down.
Brian gives a shout out to the Warriors for helping out the 80s Celtics. Brian also gives a shout out to Arturo! Not just for his great work, but for an amazing Tweet about Sharknado.
Hope you enjoyed the show, we'll see you next week! |
Thu, 24 July 2014
Hosts
Video ShowShow NotesReplacement Level PlayersNate Silver started off the WaR discussion using a bit of flawed logic. Patrick posted a reply to the problems with this. This brought in some SABR folks to give bad analysis. And finally Dave Berri, who has a PhD in economics and is a tenured professor, wrote a long piece explaining the philosophies and pitfalls with WaR Which lead to even more bad (but agreeable) analysis from SABR We had much more to say on the subject, of course! Being "average" in the NBA is valuable, as becoming a top NBA athlete is difficult. If a super "rare" player is available, you take the deal! In terms on "minimum wage" players, there's tons of salary constraints due to the CBA. Even overseas players are not as easily attainable as you might think, thanks to FIBA. The D-League players that have come to the NBA haven't really been that stellar. In short, the D-League isn't a "replacement" level factory. And of course college players have restrictions on when they can join the NBA and which teams they can sign for. Basically, there are not just "free markets" to tap for "replacement players". Something many don't consider is the opportunity cost a player imposes. Every dollar they cost, minute they play, and shot they take is coming from another player. Excellent quote by Patrick "If you come at me and tell me something that is factual wrong, and call me dumb for my point of view, then my tolerance level to have an actual, rational conversation with you is going to be pretty low." Kevin LoveWe've been on the Kevin Love bandwagon for a while.
We had quite a long discussion about the ridiculous concept of players "padding their stats" and defense. Tune in to listen. The Wolves were an above average team in defense last season, for what that's worth. A "defense" of Klay Thompson is his defense on Golden State, which again, I don't agree with. I've had various issues with defense. I'm not 100% behind Synergy stats, but I give them more weight because unlike other stats, we know why the rate players how they do. Shout Outs!Nick Haugen (@HaugenND) and TangoTiger! Thanks for being a great fan and inspiring good work, respectively. |
Thu, 17 July 2014
Your Hosts
Video ShowWeekly PollShow NotesWorld CupYeah, that ending for Brazil was pretty rough huh? Oh yeah, economists don't think governments should pay for the World Cup. Moving on. The New TV Deal and the New CBAArturo wrote a piece about how the increased TV revenue from the next deal could have large implications for current "bad" contracts. There was a great Sloan talk on this, which was apparently not recorded! Of course, signing players with "replacable skill sets" to eat up your cap space and minutes is still not wise. "You can't trade Wiggins for Love, because someday he might be as good as Love!" - Patrick Seriously Kevin Love has some historic numbers. That's even with his "bad teams". Notice that Klay and Wiggins are both, oddly, more valuable on the roster than they were as nebulous draft picks. Sunk cost anyone? By the way, if Love plays next to Bron he'll probably improve because Bron passes! Free AgencyLeBron returns to Cleveland. Oh yeah, it cost Dwyane Wade $11.5 million. Call us Quixotic, but we'll be betting the under on Indiana again this year. We hit a lot of free agents, so tune in to listen. Also, we rant about Kevin Love even more! We loved Lance Stephenson, and every team but Charlotte royally messed this one up. Shout OutsDean Oliver (@DeanO_ESPN). I had accidently left his book of my background shelf for the first half of the show. Sorry Dean! Robbie, who commented back in February that the Lakers would overpay Nick Young. Zachary Bennett (@ZacharyBD)- the "light at the end of the tunnel" for T-Wolves fans. Ari Caroline (@aricaroline) and Layne Vashro (@VJL_BBall) for their good insights on Summer League. Dave Berri (@wagesofwins), for reasons I'm not sure Dave would agree with. Enjoy the show, see you next week!
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