Thu, 30 October 2014
This Week's Show
All of the Geeks are back to talk NBA previews and the GM survey. Apologies but Dre is in a room that echos a bit. To top it off, his internet connection is rough!
This Week's Poll
Check out Arturo's regular season predictions. Of course, injuries and roster changes have already impacted some. Still, fun to see just what we were thinking. My caveat as always is minutes are hard to predict.
It's fair to say our Lakers' projection is already shot, thanks to the loss of Nash. It's worth noting that Byron Scott's hate of threes is opposite of his style when he was winning as a player with the Lakers.
Taking threes has been a key part of our two most recent title runs. The Lakers are taking another route.
Henry Abbott had a story on Kobe hurting the Lakers' rebuilding efforts. I do think the story is a bit misleading. The Lakers had been doing well getting top free agents, but health and vetoes have gotten in the way.
Reminder, Abbott has been bashing the myth of "Kobe Clutch" for years.
It's also worth noting recent CBA changes have hurt the Lakers' edge in negotiating for big names as they can't offer as much money.
Bad news for the NBA, despite their new TV deal, their ratings have declined as small markets have improved.
The Spurs could win 60 wins in their sleep. Of course, Popovich doesn't care about convention, so who knows?
We think the win total for them might be low. Of course, it's hard to know about injuries to Love, Irving, and Varejao. Also, the Cavs may rest their stars to ensure a long playoff run.
Can Kerr cure Klay Thompson's love of the midrange shot? Will Curry be able to play 2800 minutes again? Will the Warriors stop putting Barnes in the post? We'll have to see!
History doesn't side with Rose coming back full strength. Noah is amazing, but his history doesn't suggest he'll be full strength. Jimmy Butler's already out too. Health will be huge for this team.
Patrick says they'll walk to thirty wins if Flip the GM doesn't trade away all their good pieces.
The NBA GM Survey
Some great questions including how Anthony Davis is a franchise player but not the best PF in the league! Tune in to hear our thoughts.
Here is a great graphic of Anthony Davis' blocks in his first game this season.
Also, Anthony Davis is the frontrunner for our "Kevin Garnett Award", which goes to the top player stuck on a bad team.
Also, the famous "Lanky White Guy" question was absent this year.
Thanks to Dave Berri(@wagesofwins) for general help this preseason.
Thanks to Bill James for a great article being skeptical of some advanced models.
I'll leave you with this:
"There is absolutely zero chance that Cleveland loses that game tomorrow" - Arturo on the Cleveland home opener.
Thu, 16 October 2014
This Week's Show
Dre is back to talk: offseason gossip about Chris Bosh; Kevin Durant and his value to the Thunder; and Klay Thompson!
This Week's Poll
Bosh talked about how he had to sacrifice to play with LeBron. He gave this as a warning to Kevin Love.
We, of course, questioned Bosh on this. And we found Bosh's game to be less diverse compared to Kevin Love's.
There is something to Bosh's point about feeling worse when you're not the best player on your team. Malcolm Gladwell has discussed this with colleges.
Kevin Durant's Injury
No, the Thunder aren't going to miss the playoffs (if everyone else stays healthy).
This will provide a fun natural experiment. We've seen Durant without Russ. How will Russ do without Durant?
I remember! The reason this came up was Coach Nick and Arturo's great video on why Kyle Korver is the most consistent three-point shooter in the NBA!
I think Klay Thompson, based on his performance so far, is an overrated player. I think other players, including Kyle Korver, are much better.
Check out Nylon Calculus' great shot charts!
You are allowed to say a player is a good player, meaning their contributions help the team. You are allowed to say a player is talented, and that their skills aren't being properly used by the coach. However, they can not be both things simultaneously!
Klay may be a good defender in terms of impacting his opponents shots. However, his recorded defensive stats are not stellar. That said, I've often thought individual defense is overstated by many.
Anyway, with Kerr in control, Klay has no excuses this season!
Chris Baxter (@cbax), for an amazing comic on advanced stats and the eye test.
You, the Boxscore Geeks fans. The fact that our comment section turns into a discussion about Rodman vs. Wilt in terms of rebounding just warms my heart!
Thu, 9 October 2014
This Week's Show
Dre and Patrick are back to talk: the NBA's new TV deal, the upcoming CBA, and some over/unders for the upcoming season.
This Week's Poll
The NBA's TV Deal and Upcoming CBA
Explanation of new TV deal courtesy of Kevin Draper.
Patrick has some words on how there is no such thing as ballooning salaries.
I said the players should strike the 2017 playoffs. Astute reader AL_S pointed out that this is against the current CBA (page 328). The owners also agree to not to lockout, but, of course, why would they lockout the players during the CBA?
The top players in the NBA have a lot of power. Dave Berri has suggested these players just start their own league to negotiate during lockouts.
Players like Durant want to get rid of the max contract. As Patrick points out, the max contract is a misguided attempt to help the parity in the NBA.
The Cuban/Morey poll on last week's show is one of the closest we've ever posted. As of this writing, it's all tied up at 53-53!
We end up talking a bit about Mark Cuban's thoughts on age limits in the NBA.
Reminder, it's hard to win just fifteen games in the NBA. Only 27 teams in NBA history have achieved this. Of course, the Milwaukee Bucks did this last year, and I have recently relocated to Wisconsin...
Check out Basketball on Paper, which talks about slowing down the pace if you're a bad team. The 76ers have been going for an up-tempo pace though.
Patrick had some words to say about Sheridan Hoops thoughts on a few over/unders.
For your consideration: Trevor Ariza vs. Chandler Parsons career numbers.
Disagreeing with us is fine. We do get upset when your logic is inconsistent!
For your consideration: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Anthony Morrow career numbers.
The NBA Geek falls far from the tree. Patrick says his dad is smart, but that his NBA logic "makes Bill Simmons look like a Nobel Prize winner."
Here's what old boxscores used to look like (thanks Basketball-Reference!). It's not surprising people are in love with points!
Reminder, Scott Brooks is not a good coach!
Patrick thinks the Cavs and Spurs should be overs. Of course, hard to know how much they'll rest their stars.
I was on an on-line game show over at Channel Awesome(@ChannelAwesome) They were great hosts, and it was a ton of fun. I even talked some hoops. I'll let you know when it's out.
AL_S gets props for knowing the NBA CBA well enough to talk the no-strike clause in under five minutes of my post going up.
RealGM(@RealGM) also gets another shoutout for having historical transaction information.
Thu, 2 October 2014
This Week's Show
Dre is back to talk: the Daryl Morey and Mark Cuban Feud; FCC changes to the NFL's blackout restrictions; and Vegas' over/under odds for the NBA Season.
This Week's Poll
The Morey/Cuban Feud
In the offseason, the Mavs made it personal by signing Chandler Parsons.
The Rockets tried to fire back and sign Dirk Nowitzki.
Brian made sure to point out that Ariza may be an upgrade to Parsons.
Losing Omer Asik isn't likely a big deal as Terence Jones seems to be a great replacement
The Rockets have seemed to be fortunate that they've had some missteps that are immediately erased. Case in point losing Lowry but then immediately getting Harden.
The FCC and the NFL's Blackout Restrictions
Last week I talked about the NBA being foolish with their digital rights.
The FCC unanimously voted to remove the NFL's blackout of local games if it stadium tickets don't sell out.
Of course, this doesn't mean change will be quick. One or more TV stations, who already earn lots from the NFL, will have to choose to air the games.
Teams do benefit from local TV deals, but not all markets all equal. Making the overall reach of each league is sadly not the goal of every owner.
Vegas Over/Under for the NBA Season.
The Over/Under odds for the NBA season have been released.
It's become an annual tradition for Patrick to hit Vegas and put some money down on the NBA season.
Patrick gave his thoughts on the Timberwolves already. Take the over!
We discuss quite a few teams. Tune in to hear more!
Jonathan Weiler (@jonweiler) is a must follow and must read. Check out the ESPN Watch. This week his discussion on the University of Michigan and Shane Morris earned our shout out. We shout Jonathan out so regularly here I said we should just give him a lifetime achievement award and be done. Jonathan said he'd prefer the weekly praise.
Dean Oliver (@DeanO_ESPN) was recently hired by the Sacramento Kings. We're huge fans of Dean and there couldn't be a better person in an NBA front office. Of course, we've been critical of the Kings lately, so the bar just got higher for them this season.
Billy Beane! After a heartbreaking loss, the A's get to keep the stupid "can't win in the postseason" narrative. The A's did some great moves this season, and were obviously a playoff worthy team. Always next year.
A note on predictions
Last season we gave our predictions for the NBA season. I give us full credit for explaining our reasoning (minutes, and how we thought players would play.) However, we gave odds on many things like hitting the over/under, making the playoffs, etc. These odds were wildly off. We are critical of models around here a lot. We have to take our own medicine here. Our confidence model last season was not up to snuff. That said, I think trying to guess minutes and as a result wins is really rough. Still, people enjoy it, so we'll have them again.