Thu, 6 November 2014
This Week's ShowTo start the season we talk overreacting to small sample sizes. Our star player for this is Klay Thompson. We also talk the Lakers horrible start and the Cavs. Hosts
This Week's PollA note on last week's poll, it was inspired by the amazing Dante Basco
Show NotesSmall Sample Size TheaterI talk a lot about how I don't mind people "overreacting" to small sample sizes. Tune in to hear a rant! Klay ThompsonKlay has started out the NBA season as one of the greatest shooters ever. While it's unlikely he'll stay this hot, if he improves his shot selection he could be great. The problem? We've seen several faces of Klay
And, of course, he's done this before! Sample size theater for the win! Last night we saw more "Klay Classic" Klay did get a "max contract" but in absolute dollars. This may actually make his contract more valuable come the new CBA. Of course, if the Warriors balk on another Kevin Love like trade, it won't matter. Also, even if Klay plays amazingly this season, it will not negate the fact that not trading him for Love and signing him to the max were subpar decisions. We've made this point before. I can not find what Brian said that I thought would be a great title to end this segment. My bad! The Horrendous Lakers and More!The myth of Kobe "carrying" a bad Lakers squad is going to continue...
This is the Lakers worst start since 1958 when the Lakers started 0-7. Currently, this Lakers squad is worse than the 2011-2012 Charlotte Bobcats (the worst winning percentage in NBA history.) The Laker's aren't this bad. Kobe has no incentive not to shoot away. If he hopes to get another contract, he needs to keep up his image. Reminder, it's not good for the NBA for the Lakers to be bad. In fact, recent moves by the Lakers, Bulls, and Knicks are bad news. The best teams in the biggest markets should be the goal. Actually, we do know the origin to Nick Young's nickname. Read Dr. J's autobiography! It's worth it. Wow, the Cavaliers lost to the Jazz during this podcast. Maybe it's bad luck for us to praise the Cavs during the podcast! Reminder, the Heat had an underwhelming start when LeBron joined. I'm not worried yet. The Thunder are getting decimated by injury. For the billionth time, minutes are hard to guess. Shout OutsBryan Mears for a great Tweet on Trevor Ariza! Also, sorry for snubbing Ariza, who is another great small sample size story!
Kenneth Faried, DeMarcus Cousins, and Rudy Gay all get a shout out for their amazing acting in a rare triple flop! Justin Halpern(@justin_halpern) gets a shout out for the most recent Short Corner Podcast. He compared Kobe's situation on the Lakers this season the Kobayashi Maru. Or, the KOBEyashi Maru...get it? Presidente for a great Tweet on Kobe's first finals MVP
Brian has the best conspiracy of all time. What if Kobe is a super-quant and has cracked the code to get paid? Brian's ultimate part of this theory: what if Kobe ghost wrote Basketball on Paper? |
Thu, 16 October 2014
This Week's ShowDre is back to talk: offseason gossip about Chris Bosh; Kevin Durant and his value to the Thunder; and Klay Thompson! Hosts
This Week's PollShow NotesChris BoshBosh talked about how he had to sacrifice to play with LeBron. He gave this as a warning to Kevin Love. Bosh landed a max deal, four all-star berths, and two NBA titles playing with Bron. He also increased his odds of making the Hall of Fame. We, of course, questioned Bosh on this. And we found Bosh's game to be less diverse compared to Kevin Love's. There is something to Bosh's point about feeling worse when you're not the best player on your team. Malcolm Gladwell has discussed this with colleges. Kevin Durant's InjuryKevin Durant is going to be out for six to eight weeks with a Jones' fracture. No, the Thunder aren't going to miss the playoffs (if everyone else stays healthy). This will provide a fun natural experiment. We've seen Durant without Russ. How will Russ do without Durant? Klay ThompsonI remember! The reason this came up was Coach Nick and Arturo's great video on why Kyle Korver is the most consistent three-point shooter in the NBA! I think Klay Thompson, based on his performance so far, is an overrated player. I think other players, including Kyle Korver, are much better. Check out Nylon Calculus' great shot charts! You are allowed to say a player is a good player, meaning their contributions help the team. You are allowed to say a player is talented, and that their skills aren't being properly used by the coach. However, they can not be both things simultaneously! Klay may be a good defender in terms of impacting his opponents shots. However, his recorded defensive stats are not stellar. That said, I've often thought individual defense is overstated by many. Anyway, with Kerr in control, Klay has no excuses this season! ShoutoutsChris Baxter (@cbax), for an amazing comic on advanced stats and the eye test. Raquel Rodriguez (@theplanetraq), who has made the great website blackmambamyth.com, which debunks the myth Kobe is the greatest. It also has an updating clock of Kobe's misses! You, the Boxscore Geeks fans. The fact that our comment section turns into a discussion about Rodman vs. Wilt in terms of rebounding just warms my heart! |
Thu, 9 October 2014
This Week's ShowDre and Patrick are back to talk: the NBA's new TV deal, the upcoming CBA, and some over/unders for the upcoming season. Hosts
This Week's PollShow NotesThe NBA's TV Deal and Upcoming CBAExplanation of new TV deal courtesy of Kevin Draper. Lebron and Deron had some words about the new CBA because of the TV deal. Patrick has some words on how there is no such thing as ballooning salaries. I said the players should strike the 2017 playoffs. Astute reader AL_S pointed out that this is against the current CBA (page 328). The owners also agree to not to lockout, but, of course, why would they lockout the players during the CBA? Durant just signed a show deal worth more than his contract! The top players in the NBA have a lot of power. Dave Berri has suggested these players just start their own league to negotiate during lockouts. The NBA made some major progress for players in the 1970s when the ABA was around. Haywood got the age limit removed. Robertson made sure players had free agency. Players like Durant want to get rid of the max contract. As Patrick points out, the max contract is a misguided attempt to help the parity in the NBA. The Cuban/Morey poll on last week's show is one of the closest we've ever posted. As of this writing, it's all tied up at 53-53! Mark Cuban agrees on max contracts, but says if it goes, so should guaranteed deals. We disagree. We end up talking a bit about Mark Cuban's thoughts on age limits in the NBA. Over/UndersGoing to Vegas to put money on our numbers has become a tradition for Patrick. I have some thoughts on variance in predictions due to minutes. Reminder, it's hard to win just fifteen games in the NBA. Only 27 teams in NBA history have achieved this. Of course, the Milwaukee Bucks did this last year, and I have recently relocated to Wisconsin... Check out Basketball on Paper, which talks about slowing down the pace if you're a bad team. The 76ers have been going for an up-tempo pace though. The 76ers did indeed trade for Bogans. Oh yeah, he's already been waived.
Patrick had some words to say about Sheridan Hoops thoughts on a few over/unders. Patrick missed two of his bets by one game last season! For your consideration: Trevor Ariza vs. Chandler Parsons career numbers. Disagreeing with us is fine. We do get upset when your logic is inconsistent! For your consideration: Thabo Sefolosha vs. Anthony Morrow career numbers. The NBA Geek falls far from the tree. Patrick says his dad is smart, but that his NBA logic "makes Bill Simmons look like a Nobel Prize winner."  Here's what old boxscores used to look like (thanks Basketball-Reference!). It's not surprising people are in love with points! Reminder, Scott Brooks is not a good coach! Patrick remains confident the Wolves can crack 30 wins. Patrick thinks the Cavs and Spurs should be overs. Of course, hard to know how much they'll rest their stars. Will LeBron's new physique make him more dangerous? ShoutoutsI was on an on-line game show over at Channel Awesome(@ChannelAwesome) They were great hosts, and it was a ton of fun. I even talked some hoops. I'll let you know when it's out. AL_S gets props for knowing the NBA CBA well enough to talk the no-strike clause in under five minutes of my post going up. Daniel Leroux(@DannyLeroux) had both Patrick and Arturo on the RealGM podcast to talk the Southeast division. RealGM(@RealGM) also gets another shoutout for having historical transaction information. |
Thu, 14 August 2014
HostsPatrick Minton(nbageek) Produced by Brian Foster(boxscorebrian) This week's pollShow NotesO'Bannon RulingThe Ed O'Bannon trial recently came out in favor of "student athletes" Jonathan Weiler wrote a great piece about Bob Bowlski(the Big 12 -- a non-profit organization -- commissioner) and his ludicrous statements about not paying athletes. College athletics don't make money, or so they say. Of course, it's easy to not make money when you spend it all on athletic coaches! Following up Patrick's talk on this, our old post on this was using the same graphic used at Deadspin. By the way, the idea that not paying athletes helps parity in college sports is just a myth. As we've talked with Paul Shirley about before, the rules about how athletes can make money in college (e.g. side jobs using their image) are absurd. Dave Berri has discussed that paying students to work in college is nothing shocking. He does it. Athletes are apparently different. Comment PolicyAs we mentioned in the thread for last week's show, we're going to be a bit different in the comments. While we do enjoy taking the time out to clarify questions/complaints about our metrics, methodologies, etc., some have abused this. Repeating the same thing over and over is just not going to fly. Additionally, we've decided to start removing incorrect comments. We feel this is unfair to our readers, who may not realize a statement is incorrect. While we'd love to spend the time to correct/edit every comment, we don't have the time (see below for exciting reasons why). There are lots of people happy to tinker in this space. And that's great. But if your math is off, it will not find a place in our comments. One last thing that Patrick didn't mention in depth is the length of comments. If you have a super long comment, I suggest you write your own blog post (even a medium as simple as Facebook supports this) and provide a link. Again, it's rough to edit stuff and while I enjoy the enthusiasm of long comments, they do monopolize the comment space, so they too may start getting deleted. We've seen pushback before in regards to deleting/editing comments. What I will say is that this is our blog. We pay money and have put considerable work to make it. Commenting here is a priveledge, not a right. And the majority of you are great commenters with good insight. We've just seen a small rise in some issues we'd like to keep out of the comments. We hope it makes the comments a more enjoyable experience! Player Options and Net Present ValueGreg Monroe and Eric Bledsoe may be "leaving money on the table" by only accepting their qualifying offer in order to become free agents next season. Of course, Monroe may never have gotten a good offer. Patrick brings up the notion of Net Present Value. Namely, while a two contracts may be the same in total value if you accept less money now, in the long run you may be making less. After all, if Eric Bledsoe makes $100 million over five years, but in one case gets $15 million in year one and in another only gets $5 million, that's $10 million he can't invest earlier. And compound interest is amazing! Of course, there's also risk that Bledsoe's value may drop by the time he's eligible for a raise. Contract negotiations in general are going to be interesting until the next TV deal comes through. Patrick has some interesting thoughts about why certain players can age more gracefully (like Steve Nash). Tune in to hear more. Coming Soon to a Boxscore Geeks Near You!Patrick teases some new features including:
Tell Patrick how excited you are in the comments! Shout OutsJonathan Weiler(@jonweiler) for his amazing pieces on the O'Bannon case recently. Seriously, checkout the ESPN Watch. Josh Weil(@joshweil) has a similar name to Jonathan Weiler. And he's also an amazing NBA mind! Arturo Galletti(@arturogalletti) couldn't make the show. But he has been working tirelessly with Patrick to get the upgrades we promised! MusicIntro Music - Test Drive by Zapac. Outro Music - Take on Me (A-Ha), cover by Anni B Sweet. |
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