Dre and Brian are back to recap the 2024 NBA Finals. How do the 2024 Celtics rack up all time?

Professor David Berri returns to talk "Slaying the Trolls" the book he wrote with UMass' Vice Chancellor for Equity and Inclusion Nefertiti Walker. It deconstructs many of the myths in women sports, and touches on a lot of NBA and WNBA, which we love!

Dre and Brian return to talk the Conference Finals and some of the previous NBA Playoffs. Do the Wolves have a chance? We recorded this before Luka definitively answered no. Also some sad Bill Walton talk and some WNBA talk.

Dre and Brian are back to talk

• The opening round of the NBA Playoffs
• Our thoughts on the various award finalists
• The "rule changes" the NBA has had in regards to fouls
• The WNBA!
• Some thoughts on the FIDE Chess Candidates tournament

We're back to talk:

• Super Tuesday!
• Can the Warriors win with the Rookie of the Year?
• Gotta keep up the Victor Wembenyama love!
• A fun stroll down memory lane and why the blogging analytics movement fractured, crashed, and burned, but why analytics still won.
• Tune in!

Recorded 2-13-2024

• A little football talk to start!
• we check in on the OG Anunoby trade and revisit a segment we call "Brian is Right"
• We analyze the Kyle Lowry for Terry Rozier deck chairs trade.
• We talk about NBA All-Star starters and how we're pretty much fine with them.
• We also discuss All-Star rules and the Steph Curry vs. Sabrina Ionescu matchup.
• We briefly talk about the NBA salary cap, moving on!
• We discuss Luka Doncic's 73-point game, the top games so far this NBA season, and the top scoring games.
• We talk about the MVP race, Joel Embiid's injury, and Doc Rivers getting to coach again.

Stat padding, blockbuster trades, the MVP race, and more!

• Embiid and Stat Padding
• MVP Race, can a player be an MVP w/ 65 games played?
• The Detroit Pistons / Washington Wizards "Blockbuster Trade" and if Marvin Bagley should dethrone Same Bowie as the biggest draft bust.
  • A history lesson about how Moneyball is a misleading narrative.
• We discuss Pascal Siakam's possible spot. Spoiler, we think Dallas was a better fit than Indiana.
• We also question DeJounte Murray and if he should return to the Spurs.
• We don't believe Mikal Bridges is on the block but do question if a change of scenery would help.
• A brief Warriors check in!
• A Victor Wembenyama check-in, and like most rookies he started out a bit rough. Unlike most rookies, a mere 40 games into the season he's playing star level. Watch out!
  
  

Dre and Brian return to talk a whole lotta Warriors as well as the Knicks/Raptors "blockbuster trade", the Rookie of the Year Race and why the Thunder have Rookie of the Year and MVP. Tune in!

Dre and Brian return to talk the end of the NBA Cup, if Joel Embiid is MVP, how Harden is doing on the Clippers, a couple of NBA scandals and feuds!

We're back to talk:

The Phoenix Suns

How Nikola Jokic and Tyrese Haliburton are generational MVP talents this season.

The Minnesota TImberwolves finally being good!
The Rookie of the Year race with Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembenyama

Our thoughts on the NBA Cup aka the in-season tournament with some design advice from Brian.

The Golden State Warriors, of course.

Shout out to @AtomicNBA on X!

We're thrilled to have special guest Scott Williams on the podcast today. Scott is a fifteen year NBA veteran and three time title winner. Scott is on to discuss his book "Through the Fire: A Memoir of Trauma and Loss, Basketball and Triumph."

• We talk Scott's time at UNC with Dean Smith and how he overcame major tragedy including domestic abuse.
• Scott's time in the NBA and what it was like playing with MJ, Iverson, and LeBron
• Why Scott is the ultimate answer for the coolest (nerdiest?) NBA game Immaculate Grid.

You can find Scott at

• ScottWill42 on Instagram
• Scottwilliams1767 on TikTok
• and at his site https://www.scottwilliamsbasketball.com/

We're back after three weeks! The NBA started right after we recorded this, so a lot to discuss including:

• The 76ers and Clippers and if they should pull the trigger for James Harden
• Has Dre joined the Wembanyama hype train?
• Is Boston the favorite?
• The Grizzlies and how fast predictions fall apart.
• The Warriors look good but do they have weaknesses?
• Will the Phoenix Suns have an amazing offense?
• Can Ben Simmons make a comeback?
• Will Chet and the Thunder impress this year?

We even end with a hypothetical question about if playing time in the NBA matters for injuries!

Enjoy!

The slumber of the offseason is over! We discuss the major Damian Lillard trade and follow up trades. Meaning we go over, in depth:

• The state of the Portland Trail Blazers
• The state of the Milwaukee Bucks
• The state of the Phoenix Suns
• The state of the Boston Celtics

 Broadcasted live on Twitch -- Watch live at https://www.twitch.tv/nerdnumbers

We talk:

• Anthony Davis' big contract.
• The demise of the PAC 12
• ESPN getting directly in the sports betting arena
• Rank over 130 NBA Nicknames!

Thanks to:

• Basketball Reference - https://basketball-reference.com
• Thomas Neumann - https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/li...
• Pat Heery - https://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...
• Brady Klopfer (https://twitter.com/BradyKlopferNBA) - https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2022/12/...
• Howard Fear (https://twitter.com/hsfear)
• "Regular American" (https://twitter.com/Bot_From_Russia)
• Logan Trent (https://twitter.com/TheLoganTrent) 

We're back! We discuss:

• The Jaylen Brown and Kristaps Porzingis signings in Boston and why both are bad, but Boston will likely still be good.
• Briefly about Bronnie and how sports has a sad history of risk, even to the young and healthy.
• We review a list of 101 NBA Nicknames (https://therookiewire.usatoday.com/lists/greatest-nicknames-in-nba-history/ thanks Thomas Neumann!) and prepare for a fun Tier game in a few weeks.

We're back to talk:

• NBA Free Agency and why contract analysis is difficult -- unlike player evaluation.
• Damian Lillard's current saga in Portland
• Every, if not most, important free agency signing as of 7/11/2023. Some highlights:
  • Austin Reeves
  • Haliburton vs Sabonis
  • Brook Lopez
• Why Andre Drummond's sentiment that being a good teammate in attitude matters, really, his stats just aren't as important as others in terms of pay in the NBA.

We're back we talk:

• The NBA Finals and Dre's firsthand account of the Nuggets' historic win.
• The Chris Paul Trades, why the Suns and Wizards are who we thought they were, and the Warriors are light years ahead again.
• Why Bradley Beal and Devin Booker don't make sense next to each other.
• How the Warriors did well "drafting" Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis and how Mike Dunleavy has the right expectations.
• How the Celtics and Grizzlies lost the Kristaps Porzingis trade, and why it's harder to tell than you think.
• We're meh on the John Collins and Rudy Gay trade.
• Some top level NBA Draft thoughts, sorry, no real in-depth analysis here!

Brian and Dre talk the  NBA Finals, what happened to Boston, Bob Myers exit in Golden State, and Jimmy Butler's attitude. Tune in!

Andrew Sutton returns to talk the NBA Conference Finals with Brian and Dre.

We also talk:

• Doc Rivers firing
• Are the Heat for real?
• Can the Nuggets make the finals?
• Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs.

 

Brian and Dre return to talk:

• Dillon Brooks plummeting value and foolish trash talk.
• Injuries in the NBA Playoffs.
• Every 2nd Round Series, including optimism for the Warriors - which paid off!

Tune in!

Brian and Dre are back to talk:
De'Aaron Fox and Jaren Jackson Jr. winning the first two NBA awards of award season.

All of the NBA Playoffs, especially the Nuggets and Warriors.

Draymond Green's stomp, and why the NBA's handling of it was already bad, and spoilers, we'll definitely talk how it gets worse.

Also, be sure to check out the Nerd! Podcast with Brian, Dre, and Jeff this week (Brian is a guest host!) to discuss Magic the Gathering. It's found under the Jeff has Cool Fans banner anywhere podcasts are found or at patreon.com/jeffmay.

Thanks!

We're back to talk:

• The NCAA and March Madness' End
• Catlin Clark and Angel Reese's "feud"
• MVPs and why Embiid briefly wasn't deserving and is now the favorite
• Why the Warriors aren't a threat in the playoffs.
• We also break a pack of 1990-1991 Fleer Cards, but the video for that can be found at youtube.com/@nerdnumbers

Podcast Week - BSG, Ted Lasso (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-creativity-education-and-leadership-podcast/id1567287356), and Star Wars CCG ()https://www.patreon.com/jeffmay), oh my!

State of the Western Conference, Including Highlights for

• The Grizzlies
• The Kings
• The Mavericks

Deep Dive on the Denver Nuggets. Boring answer - Jamal Murray doesn’t look 100%

We skip March Madness Bracket talk but highly suggest:

https://twitter.com/DataStrictly and https://twitter.com/TyWillinganz if you want good advice

We discuss why the NCAA is a bad farm system, how the top draft picks aren’t NCAA players, and how players like Zion hurt themselves going to school.

We end Rookie of the Year and why Walker Kessler, currently ranked 4th at NBA dot coms Rookie of the Year race, is ranked 4th, behind two players we say are terrible.

Zach Edey is Brian’s potential Rookie of the Year for next year IF a team has the fortitude to play him.

Some shout-outs to high school basketball squads. Oakland High Basketball - Boys and Girls! And DePere’s Basketball Squad. 

 

Dre and Brian return to talk:

The current state of the Warriors, and what's gone wrong and what's gone right?

The Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo and some of the frustrating realities about how the NBA is really a big grift for billionaires.

We check in early on the Mavericks/Nets trade. We question if the Nets are making mistakes or if Ben Simmons is more injured than we thought, a running theme.

We also check in a few times on the Portland Trail Blazers and Damian Lillard a few times.

Enjoy!

Holy cow, we go over every major trade at the NBA Trade Deadline including:

• Kyrie Irving for Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith
• D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt to the Lakers
• Kevin Durant to the Suns!
• Josh Hart and Matisse Thybulle for the Knicks and Blazers, in another four-team trade
• Gary Payton and James Wiseman in a four-team trade with the Warriors
• Mason Plumlee to the Clippers

Dre and Brian return to talk:

The Nuggets Finals hopes!

How parity has "Returned to the NBA" and top draft picks have vanished from the top.

Why the trade market may not solve all teams woes.

Why defense remains a hard concept, and what even is defense?

Tune in!

• Find Dave on Twitter and Instagram as @wagesofwins
• FIne Dre on Twitter and Instragram as @nerdnumbers.
• You can check out nerdnumbers.substack.com for show notes, articles, and more! 

On this show, we discuss:

• Why a lot of people do science wrong.
• WNBA and NBA players being underpaid, even adjusting for league revenue.
• How the WNBA and NBA are like different weight classes in boxing.
• What Donovan Mitchell's numbers look like and why he's an MVP candidate.
• Dave Berri, Forbes, and the NBA and how Dave disagreed with them on how WNBA players were paid.
• We also compare writing to golf and gymnastics.

 

 

We talk Dre's post on NBA Award Trophies

Why Luka Doncic is the obvious MVP.

Some surprise NBA players like Lauri Markannen and Donovan Mitchell.

Dr. Jonathan Weiler (@jonweiler) joins the show! Dr. Weiler is a professor at UNC Chapel Hill, specializing in economics and politics. He also has a great Substack - jonathanweiler.substack.com. He also has the fantastic podcast "The Agony of Defeat" with Matt Andrews. He joins us to talk:

• Kyrie Irving and the deafening silence in the NBA about antisemitism.
• The New York Knicks and why the look bad and good at the same time, from someone that remembers when they were great.
• The 2022 Midterms and a ton of politics. Don't worry, we get a fair number of sports numbers in.

We're back to talk:

• The start of the NBA season. Featured teams are the Nuggets, the Warriors, the Grizzlies, the Mavericks, the Pelicans, the Cavaliers, and the Jazz.
• Is tanking a good strategy, and is Victor Wembanyama worth it?
• Dre was wrong about Russell Westbrook :(
• More chess controversy and why cheating is chess is a lot like Steph Curry's shot!

Tune in!

 

Recorded 10-4-2022

We're back to talk:

Small Sample Size Theater. Overreacting to preseason games! Including James Wiseman, Ben Simmons, Michael Porter Jr., and more!

Tyler Herro's massive contract and if it's worth it (spoiler, it's not)

Aaron Judge's Home Run Record and a brief history lesson.

A whole lot more on the Hans Niemann / Magnus Carlsen chess scandal.

We're back we talk:

(0:54) - A little warm-up talking about Brian's Warriors

(14:29) - Rob Sarver's Suspension and Fine

(32:37) - Robert William's Injury

(47:49) - Hans Niemann and Magnus Carlsen's Chess Drama

Shameless self-promotion, I just did a podcast with Jeff May on Zelda 2: The Adventure of Link. Check it out here - https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/shut-up-nerd-episode-1-zelda-2.

Also, I'm aiming to stream every Tuesday (next one on September 27th) at twitch.tv/rixtergt at 10pm EST playing a vintage NES game. Next up? Megaman 4! The other Tuesdays? Brian and I will record the Boxscore Geeks Show at twitch.tv/nerdnumbers

Dre and Brian discuss:

• Kevin Durant "staying put" in Brooklyn
• The Donovan Mitchell trade to Cleveland
• Some, definitely behind the news cycle by the time this is released, chess talk on Magnus Carlsen and Hans Niemann at the Sinquefield Cup.

We're back to talk about the relevant NBA trades and free-agent signings as of July 6th, 2022.

Special thanks to Spotrac for having such information readily available:
https://www.spotrac.com/nba/transactions/trade/ - Trades

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/free-agents/ - Free Agent tracker

Also, I review a substack piece I had on Jalen Brunson and contract rates in the modern CBA. https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/is-jalen-brunson-worth-100-million

Welcome Ben Guest for a new segment we'll be calling: "20 Second Timeout with Ben Guest", where we quickly discuss a topical subject that we don't want to wait for our "weekly" shows. Today's topic? The NBA Finals! 

Also, if you stick around to the end, I read my most recent substack article.

You can find Ben on Twitter as @bguest, his newsletter and podcast at benbo.substack.com, and his book "Zen and the Art of Coaching Basketball" is available on Amazon.com!

We're back to wrap up the NBA Conference Finals and discuss our picks for the Larry Bird and Magic Johnson Trophies.

We also "predict" the NBA Finals, with some notes on how Marcus Smart's defensive takes are wrong, and it all hinges on Robert Williams' minutes.

We're back to recap our thoughts on round 2 of the NBA Playoffs. Reminder:

• Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
• Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat
• Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
• Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns

Shout out to Greg Steele's new site - https://www.thebasketballdatabase.com/

Brian and Dre are back to talk:

Nikola Jokic's MVP season and why Joel Embiid is a hilariously bad, albeit positive option.

The Timberwolves "overzealous" celebration in their play-in victory.

Some predictions on the first round of the NBA playoffs.

This episode was recorded Thursday April 14th.

Chris Yeh (chrisyeh.com and @chrisyeh on Twitter) returns to talk about the Los Angeles Lakers and Russell Westbrook. We have a debate, will Russell Westbrook get a contract at 15% of an NBA team salary cap, or, roughly $20 million a season after his current deal expires. I say yes, Chris says no!

We also talk a lot more Lakers including:

• The family Dynamics that make the front office both good and bad at stuff.
• How awesome Austin Reeves is.

Some history for any foolish naysayers on the squad.

Shoutouts to:

• Liz Cambage
  Ian Nepomniachtchi
• Chris Yeh and Scott Johnson for their episodes on the Chris Yeh Podcast. A must for investors! (chrisyeh.com/podcast)

 

We're back to talk the sixteen trades that happened between February 4th 2022 and February 10th (the trade deadline!) Somehow we do it in less than two hours!

Full list of trades here - https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32965050/nba-trade-tracker-grades-details-every-deal-2021-22-season

Some highlights:
Tyrese Haliburton was a great pickup by the Pacers.

The Nets absolutely crushed their deal, but Daryl Morey may very well have won in his goal.

We laugh at the Wizards and give Montrezl Harrel this year's Kenneth Faried award (at least he's the front runner)

Shout out to Hikaru Nakamura for advancing in the FIDE Grand Prix in exciting fashion yesterday!

Dre and Brian are back to talk:
Some random NBA including the Nuggets, the Jazz, and the 76ers.

A lot of NFL including Tom Brady's retired, Brian Flores' coach hiring problems, and who will win the Super Bowl!

Tune in.

Short episode this week! Dre read's his piece on David Ortiz and the Hall of Fame (https://nerdnumbers.substack.com/p/why-the-baseball-hall-of-fame-is)

Also, extra content! Dre's thoughts on the Naismith Hall of Fame compared to Cooperstown. Issues with Hall of Fame and player evaluations in general.

Also is Andrew Wiggins a star, and what the Warriors say about the myth of meritocracy!

Shout out to Pete Croatto for his perfect encapsulation of the NBA All-Star game - https://twitter.com/PeteCroatto/status/1487067158467293185

 

We're back to talk:

• DeMar DeRozan and BS Game Winners
• Russell Westbrook and the silliness of "Posterizing"
• The State of the Golden State Warriors
• The Denver Nuggets deckchair trade.

Shoutout to Cristian Ramirez (@FanboyCristian) for his Game of Thrones rewatch takes.

Dave Berri returns for office hours! We talk about 2004's Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver, particularly chapter 19: "The Problem with Scorers." Particularly we go over the issue with the concept of Skill Curves, as well as dive into some of the drama of the early 2000s NBA Analytics Community.

Ben Guest, who has been helping Scott Williams -- who played on the 1991-1994 Bulls, returns to discuss an age-old topic. We also get under the hood on the Wins Produced metric and how to analyze metrics.

Ben Guest is back to discuss his podcast series on Mindful Coaching as well as some good takes on Rick Carlisle and Ben Simmons. Good news this is part 1 of 2! Ben will return next week to talk Scottie Pippen versus Michael Jordan!

We talk:

Steph Curry breaking the all-time three-point record, and why that won't stand for too long.

A lot about the Warriors' offense and how good Draymond Green is.

Issues with Rick Carlisle, coaching, the Mavericks, and "Analytic Success" stories in the NBA.

A brief farewell to the Nuggets title window.

A lot about how great Magnus Carlsen is and how bad the World Chess Championship structure is.

Shoutouts:

Check out "Old Smith/New Smith" on the Gamefully Unemployed Network - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/old-smith-new-smith-mallrats-yoga-hosers-part-01/id1345692836?i=1000544656042.

Check out Ben Guest's Newsletter, particularly his recent podcasts on mindful coaching. https://benbo.substack.com/

Topics:

• Aaron Rodgers
• The Contending Warriors
• Nikola Jokic and the Markieff Morris Fight
• Scottie Pippen and MJ
• Is DeMar DeRozan overpaid?
• Rookies!

Longer version:

Some of the silliness of Aaron Rodgers' vaccine controversy and why the data says the fans won't care.

Things like NFTs are nothing new. Case in point, the Packers have sold worthless shares in the team for years. One of the hosts is now one of them!

The Warriors are good now? Really, we're only worried about Jordan Poole. The hosts are split on how to feel about Kuminga.

The Markieff Morris/Nikola Jokic fight.

Scottie Pippen's contribution to Michael Jordan's legacy.

DeMar DeRozan's current performance, and why the Bulls are so good. We actually agree DeRozan is underpaid but the "secret sauce" is Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Artūras Karnišovas for Executive of the Year!

A little talk about the Rookie of the Year "race" and why it's maybe a little early to be this hyped on Evan Mobley.

Shoutouts:

Tonthadon was in twitch.tv/nerdnumbers live and shouted us out. Thanks!

Great quote from JP on leaving money on the table for rings: https://twitter.com/jay_pea619/status/1450848329911312384

First, you can purchase Ben's book at Amazon here - https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Art-Coaching-Basketball-Namibian-ebook/dp/B09KL7P5BP

Ben discusses an amazing journey where he coached a high school squad in Namibia and somehow turned them into a pro team that had the biggest upset run in KBA playoff history.

Make sure to follow Ben's newsletter and podcast at benbo.substack.com, and follow Ben on Twitter @bguest. Also tune in, or check out Boxscore Geeks -- https://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-boxscore-geeks-show-zen-and-the-art-of-coaching-basketball -- for a fun contest around the book launch. 

Holy cow, we have returned! Good news everyone, numbers are live at boxscoregeeks.com!

We talk:

• More Ben Simmons contract drama.
• Dre's substack piece on Bill Walton and the NBA's 75th Anniversary team.
• The Golden State Warriors. Yes, they're good, but is it a mirage?
• Some "Small Sample Size Theater" including former Warriors forwards and the giant Cleveland Cavaliers.

Chris Yeh (chrisyeh.com), the ultimate Lakers fan returns to talk, what else? The Lakers!

We talk about how the 2022 Lakers might be in good shape, with an assist from a Jeremy Britton prototype.

We talk about how the 2004 Lakers "woes" are a myth.

We briefly talk about the Warriors and why Ben Simmons would be a steal.

Finally, we catch up on the first few episodes of Ted Lasso season 2, with a shout-out to LassoCon, which Chris helped put together.

Tune in!

• TLDR:
  The NBA Draft and bad decision-making.
• Oscar Robertson and the NBA's history of labor negotiations.
• David Berri's time at Forbes.
• Stephon Marbury is a First-Ballot Hall of Famer!

---

Welcome to Office Hours with Professor David Berri. A podcast where David Berri stops by to discuss his research and writing and writing on sports. Today Dave hops on to talk about the NBA Draft, in particular, an update to an old study, and why he’s not optimistic about his Detroit Pistons in the 2021 draft. We also talk about Oscar Robertson and his fight for players' rights in the 70s. We review Dave’s time at Forbes, where he wrote almost 100 articles, and why it ended on rocky terms thanks to the NBA. One of my favorite thesis of this is episode is how we discuss Television’s impact on the “analytics movement.” And somehow Dave even manages to end on noting that Stephon Marbury absolutely belongs in the Naismith Hall of Fame first ballot, namely for his time in China!

I want to shout out some of the research mentioned on today’s show:

We discuss the NBA draft, specifically: The fifty-fifth Reading Online Sport Economics Seminar (ROSES) by Dave Berri of the Southern Utah University, presenting “Stereotypes and Hiring Decisions: Lessons from the NBA Draft”, put on by James Reade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIJFjqYdQFs

 

This is based on research that appeared in Stumbling on Wins from David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and with help from Stephen Walters. Erica Hanserd helped by adding High School Ratings to make the research even more verbose!

We mention the senior paper from Greyson Hulet, a Southern Utah University student. It looks at the age curve by position! A topic I’m sure we’ll revisit in Greyson puts his paper online.

We talk about research from Jason Dana, which I first heard on Dan Ariely’s “Arming the Donkeys” podcast. The paper I believe they discuss is “Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion”

We specifically talk about Dave’s paper: Oscar Robertson, Antitrust, and the Fight Against Monopsony Power in the NBA

One correct - at one point I say in 53 of Michael Jordan’s playoff games, 44% were above average. Apologies, I meant 44 games, total which is a little over 80%!

Outro Music is Pure Magic by Chris Haugen

We're back we talk:

• The NBA Finals and how Giannis Antetokounmpo's Finals MVP performance ranks, as well as his Chik-fil-A endorsement attempt.
• A teaser of a talk with Dave Berri and our two cents on the NBA Draft. Namely, if you're worried about how the NBA Draft impacts your team next season, you've already lost.
• Simone Biles and how athletes playing through injuries is weird and annoyingly applauded, e.g. James Harden this year.
• The Ben Simmons' trade rumors and why they make no sense (for the 76ers to bite on)
• Why Brad Beal is a horrible target for the Warriors
• Why the New Orleans Pelicans won the first major offseason trade in acquiring Jonas Valanciunus.
• Shoutout to LassoCon 2020!

Enjoy!

Dre and Brian talk:

Mark Eaton's case for the Hall of Fame.

We talk a bunch of Celtics drama including:

Danny Ainge leaving

Kyrie Irving commenting on racism and snubbing the Boston logo.

A fake screenshot Tweet that got NBA Twitter.

Of course, we review round 1 of the playoffs. Some highlights: Hawks vs. Knicks - the mini Rockets looked good.

Lakers vs. Suns - Health sucks and Bubble Basketball and Play-In Ball have added a ton of variance.

Nuggets vs. Blazers - Hat tip to Damian Lillard and thanks to Melo! Jazz vs. Grizzlies - Jazz are the favorites, one loss meant nothing. Bucks vs. Heat - Reversion to the mean hit hard.

Clippers vs. Mavericks - Porzingis was a mistake. Doncic is good

Shout outs:

Naomi Osaka for withdrawing from the French Open.

Tedd Lasso and the amazing AI "Practice" homage.

We talk:

The Warriors making the playoffs, and how Dre was right!

The MVP race and why it's obviously Jokic

A little NBA Playoffs, we'll talk more after the play-in.

Ben Wallace and Chris Webber are in the Hall of Fame. We go over Dre's article on the subject.

Shout out to Mark Fidrych, one of the most amazing "what if healthy?" players in sports history.

Enjoy!

Reviewing the economics and rationality behind what NBA teams look for in NBA players using Drew Timme.

Fun precursor. Thanks Robert Vodicka for noticing we had a bug on the 76ers page of the boxscoregeeks.com -- we talk this at the end of the show. Ironically fixing this page was an easy fix but also required a system update which wound up taking down the Boxscore Geeks for two days ... so yeah!

Patrick is back to talk:

Why James Wiseman was hurting the Warriors and how Curry is an MVP. This happened right before Curry torched the Nuggets and had back to back 10+ three pointer games!

We talk the Wolves possibly getting sold and Patrick gives a free Business Course on how to really analyze NBA front office finances.

We talk a silly chess feud that resulted in a fight between Eric Hansen and Hikaru Nakamura - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4FcokIxe50A, it is as stupid as it sounds!

Tune in!

We were lucky to have on a very special guest - @TyWillinganz! Ty's a fellow Wisconsinite who's been blogging about basketball forever. In the old days, he regularly wrote at https://courtsideanalyst.wordpress.com. He stopped after the lockout but is back at https://berribasketballratings.blogspot.com. We specifically had Ty on to discuss his brilliant March Madness strategies. However, we ended up talking more about random basketball topics, mainly due to the suboptimal performance of our respective brackets. Tune in!

Some highlights:

Ty discusses how he breaks down player productivity as a W-L number as opposed to a single aggregate.

We talk how Ty was one of the first bloggers I knew of that attacked defense and noted that it was more of a team/scheme/coach number than something easily tied to a player.

We talk about Ty's precursor to Moreyball - Sh** Shots, or how midrange shots were obviously a horrible plan. Ty also has a metaphor for ideal defense in the NBA - the Avocado Defense (hard on the outside and middle, soft in the middle).

We do talk about some basic March Madness strategy and why Michigan wasn't a bad Darkhorse. Also, Drew Timme looks great and should enter the draft if he knows what's good for him.

We discuss a few NBA trades particularly Jeff Teague to Milwaukee, Drummond to LA, and Aaron Gordon to the Nuggets.

There is also tons of NFL and Football talk scattered throughout the talk as Ty is a giant Packers fan and Brian knows a ton of football. Enjoy!

We talk: 

Steph Curry's Talents being wasted on the Warriors.

Anthony Edwards' bad shooting but "good dunk" and the Nate Duncan online fight.

Draymond Green's Great take on Andre Drummond/James Harden and the double standard for players and front offices in the media.

Kristaps Porzingis being an obvious mistake at the time for the Mavericks.

And why the Nuggets have room for optimism and pessimism.

Broadcasted live on Twitch -- Watch live at https://www.twitch.tv/nerdnumbers 9:30pm EST Monday!

Timestamps of subjects below:

0:40 Anthony Edwards is impressively bad!

7:20 Shaq/Donovan Mitchell feud.

13:15 NBA's commentators are bad for growing the sport.

19:15 Nikola Jokic is MVP and the best passing big ever.

27:24 Dikembe Mutombo swag!

32:20 Clint Capela and the death of the Houston Rockets

39:54 The James Harden / Jarrett Allen trade.

49:36 The WFH BSG 1:04:00 The Wolves horrible #1 Pick history

Shoutouts:

Patrick - Karl Anthony Towns and the unfair year he's had.

Brian - T.D. Williams for their great take on Shaq's bad commenting.

Dre - Andrey Esipenko for defeating Magnus Carlsen in their first match!

The NBA season is upon us and we review the state of a small small portion of the NBA thanks to the great data from Hispanos NBA (https://en.hispanosnba.com/transactions)

Thanks to co-host Chris Yeh for coming on to predict his Lakers would win the 1st seed out West again. Andres counters his Nuggets will win the #1 seed. Where Brian says the Warriors are a team that plays basketball.

You can find Chris at chrisyeh.com, @chrisyeh on Twitter, and make sure to check out his two New York Times best sellers: Blitzscaling and the Alliance. Both co-written by Reid Hoffman (and Ben Casnocha for the Alliance). As we note on the show Chris and Reid are the Terry Pratchet and Neil Gaiman of the Business writing world!

New York Times Best Seller (among many many other accolades!) Chris Yeh returns to talk three of his birthday wishes. In the order we talk about them:

A Biden victory!

• Chris Yeh's Podcast has a great talk with John Robb on this subject!
• We also note the absurdity of treating election results as a linear "game" and not a bunch of votes being counted "out of order."

A Dodger's Championship

• That Kershaw guy is pretty good!

A Lakers Championship

• Chris Yeh's Podcast has a great episode with Gary Martin aka the "Lakers Sign Guy" on their title.
• We also talk the Lakers vs. Celtics "rings" total.
• Also, the Agony of Defeat Podcast has a must listen episode with Jeff Pearlman on the Lakers!

As always check out Chris Yeh at chrisyeh.com and thanks for listening!

We're all about the second round of the NBA playoffs, including the Nuggets ridiculous 3-1 comeback. Can they take down the Lakers, who have a history of destroying them? Well, we talk about it with special guest Chris Yeh.

We play our regular game: Analytics Pickup where we each provide a set of answers to a question and then draft the top six.

Today's question: "What are the biggest almost events in NBA history that would have had huge ramifications."

We always start out with an example, which, this week, also won the game. Spoilers below on the winning entries, so don't scroll down if you don't want them ruined. And tune in for the other answers as well as some that didn't make the cut!


Spoilers!

--------------------------------

1. Steve Ballmer buys the Sonics and keeps the in Seattle.

2. The NBA copies the ABA and allows underclassmen and high schoolers straight into the NBA in the 60s.

3. Michael Jordan doesn't retire in 1993.

4. The Orlando Magic roll "lucky 7s" in the Summer of 2000 and get a healthy Grant Hill, Tracy McGrady, Tim Duncan, and maybe even Ben Wallace on their squad.

5. The ABA successfully signs Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to the New York Nets.

6. The Philadelphia 76ers keep Sam Hinkie after the Ben Simmons draft.

We look at Tracy McGrady's most impactful 33 seconds and how they represent his entire career:

Links:

Basketball-Reference link of the game.

BBallBreakdown's Video on Tracy McGrady's Effortless Scoring.

Boxscore Geeks: Tracy McGrady's Career Wins Produced

Outro Music is Pure Magic by Chris Haugen -- thanks YouTube Public Domain Music!

 

We play a geeky analytics game. Dre and an "opponent" each come with five NBA ideas on a theme. We list each person's idea, discuss it, then "draft" our top six (starting five and a bench general).

Today's topic was "Forgotten but Effective NBA Strategies."

This was a "pilot" episode, so we had some sound and rules issues, but in the end, a ton of fun, so we're sure we'll be doing it again!

We talk: The NBA 's Florida Bubble plan in Disneyworld. We hope we're wrong but we're not optimistic about it. Good podcast with Ari Caroline at TrueHoop about it - https://www.truehoop.com/p/bring-it-in-ari-caroline.

We talk Paul George's reason for leaving Indiana (because, topical!) and why he was right but it's a problem the NBA has always had and will continue to have.

We talk about how with no basketball being played "comparing" players gets interesting. For instance, Donovan Mitchell vs. Rudy Gobert become a much different topic.

We review MJ's career including:

How MJ is properly rated -- for the wrong reasons.
How underrated some of MJ's teammates were.
How the NBA and the Spurs gifted MJ his second three-peat.

Tune in!

We talk about the 80s/90s Lakers and Bulls. Chris Yeh's great podcast. The reality TV show Mental Samurai!

Full show notes - https://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-boxscore-geeks-show-277-chris-yeh-and-the-lakers-last-dance

We start the podcast talking politics. Sorry, one of us lives in Wisconsin! Skip to minute 18 if you want to avoid it.

We discuss the potential Rudy Gobert / Donovan Mitchell schism in Utah and how the Warriors could benefit.

We compare Steph Curry to Chris Mullin and Draymond Green to Scottie Pippen, kind of.

In our lightning round we talk:

• The World Chess Championship and why it's silly, said even better by others in 2013! https://slate.com/culture/2013/11/the-world-chess-championship-is-an-embarrassing-anachronism-its-time-to-end-it-forever.html
• Gar Forman is "finally" out in Chicago.
• We know why Kevin Garnett won't retire his jersey.
• We tease a book we'll probably talk in the future from Ethan Sherwood Strauss.
• Brian wonders about Anthony Edwards' draft stock.

Our "What We're Watching" this week:

• Onward on Disney+
• Better Call Saul
• Peaky Blinders

We recorded this March 24th, so obviously the COVID-19 news has been a large part of both the sports and regular media. We try not to talk it too much, but obviously it does still come up a decent amount.

We talk: Analytics and how we're saddened but not shocked by the public response to experts.

On a lighter note, we review the 2015-2016 NBA season and how the Spurs were supposed to lose and the Warriors were supposed to win.

We talk the 2020 NBA season being postponed and why we don't think it's coming back.

Some recommendations for NBA-alternatives:

• Brian: Vikings TV show (for some people, not for everyone. You know who you are!)
• Brian: The Expanse. Apparently one of the best sci-fi shows out.
• Dre: The Unpopular Opinion Podcast Network - patreon.com/unpops
• Dre: Gamefully Unemployed Podcast Network - patreon.com/GamefullyUnemployed (particular Jeff and Tom watch Batman and the Highlander podcast series!)

 

 

 

We talk Free Throws and NBA shooting "Advances" or lack thereof. The Smallball Rockets, how the NBA is wrestling, and more. Apologies on the late release, last week was hectic!

When we grade "bad trades" should we grade based on the disparity between talent or on how bad the contract the team gets back.

We talk the Warriors and if they can redeem themselves from this bad season.

We also deep dive the 76ers and how royally they wasted "The Process."

We talk about how the Dunk contest is outdated and you either keep it around for tradition or scrap it. There is no "fixing it."

We didn't do show notes, but we did a podcast on Kobe Bryant right after his death. If you missed it, check out our iTunes/YouTube channels, or here's the link.

We talk about the Elam ending in the All-Star game. And no, this isn't the great Broncos Kicker's idea.

We congratulate Kawhi on winning All-Star MVP and note how much better it is that he's in LA than San Antonio. In San Antonio, he didn't make the All-Star game right after winning Finals MVP and DPOY.

We talk Kyrie Irving's season-ending injury and Joseph Gill's point about how maybe the NBA needs to take over the development of future stars instead of trusting institutions like the AAU and NCAA.

We love Trevor Bauer's rant on how the MLB is hurting its future.

The Rockets sign Jeff Green and we kind of wonder if the "Analytics Revolution" is a myth.

Our take on TV ratings? It's a complicated system and no one knows anything for sure.

We talk:

The D'Angelo Russell / Andrew Wiggins swap, full of memes Brian has come up with to describe the situation.

The end of the Andre Iguodala / Memphis Grizzlies WWE angle.

The Clint Capela trade, and how everyone won but the Rockets.

The Andre Drummond trade, and how it shows market inefficiencies.

We also talked Patrick's Vegas picks and NBA All-Star snubs.

Tune in!

We got some good Kobe comments in response to last week's show.

We talk the NBA trade deadline and why the Warriors probably won't move D'Angelo Russell but maybe should.

We also talk some other trade deadline topics including Andre Iguodala.

We talk the Superbowl and analytics with some good insights from 538.

We talk Kobe Bryant's passing, his legacy (the good and the bad), and how nerdy analytic people cope with grief (it involves redirecting anger toward transportation systems)

We also talk about the great WNBA new CBA and how there is optimism in the WNBA's future.

E.J. joins Brian, Dre, and Patrick to discuss a few issues with the most recent installment of Star Wars. We get a few sports metaphors in though! Tune in!

We talk:

A whole lot about the World Blitz Chess Championship, with some comparisons/observations to sports and analytics.

Kristaps Poringis' post-ups, Carlisle's weak defense, and BBallbreakdown's great video on the subject.

David Stern's legacy.

Tune in!

We review the 1972 World Chess Championship and compare it to the 2016 NBA Championship.

We talk the Warriors, including some Kevin Durant drama and why more NBA teams should read the book "The Alliance."

We talk some MVP "darkhorses."

We talk a little bit about the Nuggets too!

Tune in!

Chris Yeh returns to checkin on his preseason prediction* that the Lakers could win 70+ games.

Unshockingly it's a Lakers heavy podcast including:

Underrated all-time greats that were Lakers.

The best actor/NBA player, who is also a Laker.

Why the Lakers are doing great, and how they might be better off without Kawhi.

A little more around the NBA stuff including Jimmy Butler, the Milwaukee Bucks, and Coach Fizdale's firing.

We talk:

The Warriors woeful start.

James Wiseman and why the NCAA is terrible.

Why a midseason tournament still doesn't fix tanking.

A little bit about Carmelo Anthony's Player of the Week award.

Also, fun tangent on how the "data-driven analytics managed X" is a myth.

We're back after a month full of sporadic life events. Brian says if we're a little off our game, it's akin to a James Harden hangover game!

We talk:

Some great user comments including: is the Big-Three Era gone? Are the Suns using bigs properly? Is Richaun Holmes good in Sacramento, and how the Pacers center looks alright.

A conspiracy theory about hand injuries in the NBA and if the Warriors are using it to help tank.

More Kevin Love trade rumors.

The Rockets finally correcting the mistake of signing Ryan Anderson.

A fun list of NBA Twitter debacles courtesy of Tyler Cowen.

Also plenty of tangents, so be sure to tune in to hear them!

We talk:

Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid's fight and why it was stupid.

RJ Barrett's huge minutes and why old-timers are wrong about modern load management.

Some disappointments this season including Curry's injury, Eric Gordon's contract, and the Jazz wasting Donovan Mitchell's great season w/ Jeff Green, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Mike Conley.

Some pleasant surprises including Luka Donvic's MVP start, Dwight Howard?? and Patrick being right about the Suns and the Clippers (rip to his Warriors take though).

Shout out to Erik Spoelstra and Jimmy Butler for encouraging taking time off for your family.

Why letting Malcolm Brogdon walk was unforgivable by the Milwaukee Bucks.

A little about WWE potentially unionizing over a bad overseas trip.

We talk:

Daryl Morey and China.

Big extensions! Did teams spend well on players like Bradley Beal and Buddy Hield?

Stat lessons using internet drama.

Is Klay worth the money?

Tune in!

We grade some of Patrick's grades from last week. Greg likes Patrick's Spurs bets but thinks that the Knicks could be alright.

Greg thinks Giannis hasn't hit his ceiling!

We discuss 538's Raptor and some issues we've had in analytical models and standard flaws we've seen over the years.

Greg makes a slam dunk point -- when you evaluate a metric or a model, look at the math and how the model is
constructed. While player rankings are what get clicks, it is not how you should prove or disprove
a model's output.

We talk Greg's offseason grades for the Lakers and why he likes DeMarcus Cousins more than us.

Tune in!

We talk Patrick's NBA preseason bets, Daryl Morey's Tweets, and Draymond Green's height. Tune in!

We talk:

The NBA Draft Lottery and how Andres will presenting on it this week!
Matchup-based defense courtesy of Greg Steele and Paul DeVos
The WNBA Finals, although we did this before Elena Delle Donne's injury!
The NBA will be cracking down on incorrectly labeled heights!
The NCAA's future.
Billy Mitchell and Donald Trump.

Tune in.

We're back and we talk:

How the Nene contract and Thabo Sefolosha signing are Moneyball moves by the Rockets.

How Andre Iguodala and Grizzlies have made a good deal, and how it relates to "player tampering" in the NBA and the absurdity of it.

We circle back to Antonio Brown, who was more of a Forrest Gump than a Keyser Soze

We talk a little WNBA, how Derek Fisher is a bad coach, and how the playoffs should be in bigger venues.

We talk how Reggie Miller could be great in the modern NBA.

We note Hakeem Olajuwon is finally an "old-timer" that understands how bunk the "death of the big man" narrative is.

We give John Harbaugh some analytics love for his decision to go for the extra point in football.

Devin Dignam guests to discuss how movies have gotten "worse" but we talk a lot about the future and past of sports betting and Daily Fantasy Sports in the United States. We also talk a little NBA including the Raptors and the underwhelming team USA performance.

We talk:

Antonio Brown and some of the absurdities of "professionalism" in sports, including Ninja Headbands.

Who should go in the Hall of Fame in 2020? Andre Miller deserves a look for first-ballot, and some names like Ben Wallace need to be in already.

Andre Iguodala's buyout in Memphis.

Eric Gordon's horrible contract.

CM Punks' interview at Starrcast.

Tune in!

Homework for next week - the Freakonomics Podcast on Sports Betting and Superman 2!

Topics:
Time Travel and messing up timelines by time-traveling!
Andrew Luck, injuries, and retirement.
Caris LeVert's new contract.
The Lakers and how Dwight Howard helps them, probably.

We talk the Houston Rockets, including Greg Steele's take that they upgraded their point guard, and Daryl Morey's tepid point that James Harden is a better scorer than Michael Jordan ever was, is, or will be ... probably. We employ our ever famous Time Travel Tests for this.

We talk the DeMarcus Cousins injury and how it reveals a flaw in analysts thinking.

We talk a proposal Greg Steele has for improving the NBA draft contract situation to prevent Anthony Davis situations.

It's the offseason so we also have general tangents on analytics and random movies, including comparing Kevin Durant to Spider-man.

Tune in!

We start the show talking gun history in the US. Don't worry, we compare it to NBA media and knuckleballs.

We talk Draymond Green's $100 million contract and how to construct NBA teams.

We mention CJ McCollum's contract being bad.

Is a Twix a cookie?

Tune in!

 

Chris Yeh returns and we discuss:

Behind the scenes on how podcasts are made.

How Lin-Manual Miranda did a "Blitzscale" move with his hit musical Hamilton.

How Kawhi's "Uncle Dennis" is an example of a mainstream narrative clashing with the actual story.

We use that to springboard into how the Lakers narratives are wrong. We also discuss what the heck has happened in LA the last two years and the state of the Lakers going forward.

We discuss a little bit about Kobe's legacy and if Paul Pierce was a better franchise player.

Tune in!

It's the offseason and our threat to be a political show happens, for one day at least! We talk:

<ore about the "right" way to do analytics, and compare last week's guest Greg Steele's work with bad metrics.

We also bring up the infamous Klay Thompson and if he's over or undervalued (spoiler, somewhere in the middle)

We discuss the 538 analytics of the 2016 presidential primary and also the presidency and kind of tie it to problems in NBA analytics. Also, if you were hoping for a political history lesson, this segment is for you!

We talk the Lakers and the Spurs and piece Dre wrote about their advantages and disadvantages.

We shout out Marcus Morris and Kawhi and some of the silly drama they've had this offseason.

Tune in!

Greg Steel of greekgodofstats.com joins us to discuss his work on analytics using updating NBA stats. We break down a lot of how to look at NBA offense and defense w/ new stats.

We also talk the Russell Westbrook / Chris Paul trade and how James Harden will co-exist and if Russell Westbrook's defense will compare to Chris Paul's.

We talk the Kawhi Leonard / Paul George teamup in LA. Greg has some advice for what the Clippers should look for.

We lament the Bucks cutting corners on the heels of a great season.

Tune in!

Holy cow, Brian and Dre discuss the current state of NBA transactions for EVERY NBA team. We do give a little extra focus to:

The dumpster fire that is the Golden State Warriors.
The small market Bucks and their shortsightedness.

We also talk the Lakers, Jazz, Grizzlies, and Nets a bunch more in detail.

Tune in!

Chris Yeh is back to discuss the Lakers bizarre offseason.

We talk:

• The Anthony Davis trade and how the Lakers are the real winner. Also, the NBA's new draft rules sadly give incentives for bad things.
• The NBA draft, and why the Denver Nuggets won it.
• We also talk a few around the NBA topics including Evan Turner, Mike Conley, and Tony Snell.
• We catch up a little with Chris as well, who has been on a whirlwind tour since becoming a Mental Samurai and a Blitzscaling master.

Tune in!

With apologies, our recording software added some weird sound quality, we're work on it for next week.

 

We discuss Jalen Rose's anti-analytics article. We also talk Bomani Jone's reply to it. We agree with Rose's thesis, but disagree with his supporting arguments.

We talk Kevin Durant's NBA Finals injury and how it reminds us of Grant Hill. We also talk the NBA Finals and what we think will happen.

Tune in!