Dave Berri returns for office hours! We talk about 2004's Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver, particularly chapter 19: "The Problem with Scorers." Particularly we go over the issue with the concept of Skill Curves, as well as dive into some of the drama of the early 2000s NBA Analytics Community.

Ben Guest, who has been helping Scott Williams -- who played on the 1991-1994 Bulls, returns to discuss an age-old topic. We also get under the hood on the Wins Produced metric and how to analyze metrics.

Ben Guest is back to discuss his podcast series on Mindful Coaching as well as some good takes on Rick Carlisle and Ben Simmons. Good news this is part 1 of 2! Ben will return next week to talk Scottie Pippen versus Michael Jordan!

We talk:

Steph Curry breaking the all-time three-point record, and why that won't stand for too long.

A lot about the Warriors' offense and how good Draymond Green is.

Issues with Rick Carlisle, coaching, the Mavericks, and "Analytic Success" stories in the NBA.

A brief farewell to the Nuggets title window.

A lot about how great Magnus Carlsen is and how bad the World Chess Championship structure is.

Shoutouts:

Check out "Old Smith/New Smith" on the Gamefully Unemployed Network - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/old-smith-new-smith-mallrats-yoga-hosers-part-01/id1345692836?i=1000544656042.

Check out Ben Guest's Newsletter, particularly his recent podcasts on mindful coaching. https://benbo.substack.com/

Topics:

• Aaron Rodgers
• The Contending Warriors
• Nikola Jokic and the Markieff Morris Fight
• Scottie Pippen and MJ
• Is DeMar DeRozan overpaid?
• Rookies!

Longer version:

Some of the silliness of Aaron Rodgers' vaccine controversy and why the data says the fans won't care.

Things like NFTs are nothing new. Case in point, the Packers have sold worthless shares in the team for years. One of the hosts is now one of them!

The Warriors are good now? Really, we're only worried about Jordan Poole. The hosts are split on how to feel about Kuminga.

The Markieff Morris/Nikola Jokic fight.

Scottie Pippen's contribution to Michael Jordan's legacy.

DeMar DeRozan's current performance, and why the Bulls are so good. We actually agree DeRozan is underpaid but the "secret sauce" is Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso. Artūras Karnišovas for Executive of the Year!

A little talk about the Rookie of the Year "race" and why it's maybe a little early to be this hyped on Evan Mobley.

Shoutouts:

Tonthadon was in twitch.tv/nerdnumbers live and shouted us out. Thanks!

Great quote from JP on leaving money on the table for rings: https://twitter.com/jay_pea619/status/1450848329911312384

First, you can purchase Ben's book at Amazon here - https://www.amazon.com/Zen-Art-Coaching-Basketball-Namibian-ebook/dp/B09KL7P5BP

Ben discusses an amazing journey where he coached a high school squad in Namibia and somehow turned them into a pro team that had the biggest upset run in KBA playoff history.

Make sure to follow Ben's newsletter and podcast at benbo.substack.com, and follow Ben on Twitter @bguest. Also tune in, or check out Boxscore Geeks -- https://www.boxscoregeeks.com/articles/the-boxscore-geeks-show-zen-and-the-art-of-coaching-basketball -- for a fun contest around the book launch. 

Holy cow, we have returned! Good news everyone, numbers are live at boxscoregeeks.com!

We talk:

• More Ben Simmons contract drama.
• Dre's substack piece on Bill Walton and the NBA's 75th Anniversary team.
• The Golden State Warriors. Yes, they're good, but is it a mirage?
• Some "Small Sample Size Theater" including former Warriors forwards and the giant Cleveland Cavaliers.

Chris Yeh (chrisyeh.com), the ultimate Lakers fan returns to talk, what else? The Lakers!

We talk about how the 2022 Lakers might be in good shape, with an assist from a Jeremy Britton prototype.

We talk about how the 2004 Lakers "woes" are a myth.

We briefly talk about the Warriors and why Ben Simmons would be a steal.

Finally, we catch up on the first few episodes of Ted Lasso season 2, with a shout-out to LassoCon, which Chris helped put together.

Tune in!

• TLDR:
  The NBA Draft and bad decision-making.
• Oscar Robertson and the NBA's history of labor negotiations.
• David Berri's time at Forbes.
• Stephon Marbury is a First-Ballot Hall of Famer!

Welcome to Office Hours with Professor David Berri. A podcast where David Berri stops by to discuss his research and writing and writing on sports. Today Dave hops on to talk about the NBA Draft, in particular, an update to an old study, and why he’s not optimistic about his Detroit Pistons in the 2021 draft. We also talk about Oscar Robertson and his fight for players' rights in the 70s. We review Dave’s time at Forbes, where he wrote almost 100 articles, and why it ended on rocky terms thanks to the NBA. One of my favorite thesis of this is episode is how we discuss Television’s impact on the “analytics movement.” And somehow Dave even manages to end on noting that Stephon Marbury absolutely belongs in the Naismith Hall of Fame first ballot, namely for his time in China!

I want to shout out some of the research mentioned on today’s show:

We discuss the NBA draft, specifically: The fifty-fifth Reading Online Sport Economics Seminar (ROSES) by Dave Berri of the Southern Utah University, presenting “Stereotypes and Hiring Decisions: Lessons from the NBA Draft”, put on by James Reade https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIJFjqYdQFs

This is based on research that appeared in Stumbling on Wins from David Berri, Martin Schmidt, and with help from Stephen Walters. Erica Hanserd helped by adding High School Ratings to make the research even more verbose!

We mention the senior paper from Greyson Hulet, a Southern Utah University student. It looks at the age curve by position! A topic I’m sure we’ll revisit in Greyson puts his paper online.

We talk about research from Jason Dana, which I first heard on Dan Ariely’s “Arming the Donkeys” podcast. The paper I believe they discuss is “Belief in the unstructured interview: The persistence of an illusion”

We specifically talk about Dave’s paper: Oscar Robertson, Antitrust, and the Fight Against Monopsony Power in the NBA

One correct - at one point I say in 53 of Michael Jordan’s playoff games, 44% were above average. Apologies, I meant 44 games, total which is a little over 80%!

Outro Music is Pure Magic by Chris Haugen

We're back we talk:

• The NBA Finals and how Giannis Antetokounmpo's Finals MVP performance ranks, as well as his Chik-fil-A endorsement attempt.
• A teaser of a talk with Dave Berri and our two cents on the NBA Draft. Namely, if you're worried about how the NBA Draft impacts your team next season, you've already lost.
• Simone Biles and how athletes playing through injuries is weird and annoyingly applauded, e.g. James Harden this year.
• The Ben Simmons' trade rumors and why they make no sense (for the 76ers to bite on)
• Why Brad Beal is a horrible target for the Warriors
• Why the New Orleans Pelicans won the first major offseason trade in acquiring Jonas Valanciunus.
• Shoutout to LassoCon 2020!

Enjoy!